Fenix PD32 LED Flashlight Product Review

Several years ago, I had the chance to read a book by Nassim Taleb called Fooled by Randomness. This is a fantastic book that I highly recommend to anyone interested in statistics and how they relate to real life. He came out with another book called The Black Swan. Interestingly enough, when it first came out and I went to the local bookstore to purchase one, the copy I picked up had been glued into the cover backwards and upside down. Truly an ironic Black Swan event. I just finished reading an excellent article by Peter Daniel Harworth. In it, he discusses not only the origin of the term “black swan event” but also the penchant we in the US have for making war. Based on some recent polls done that show the almost unbelievable level of discontent in the US right now with our political leaders, he states that in his estimation there is a possibility of a “black swan event” in the US such as a second civil war. The final paragraph of his article is the one that struck me as the most important. Mr. Harworth says:

“Regardless of whether we are (a) on the verge of a black swan and (b) whether it could take the form of a new constitutional convention, civil war and disunion, non-sectional civil war, new foreign conflicts that create patriotic unity and economic opportunity, or some other manifestation, the outcome of any such mode of an improbable game-changer would be immensely disruptive for life as we know it. In following Taleb, we should realize that preparing for major outliers is both practical and often rewarding. Given both these considerations and the realization that black swans are (as Taleb argues) frequent in history, it seems prudent to continue exploring these issues. In fact such an examination might be one of the saner actions for us to pursue at this juncture.”

It is critical that we acknowledge the fact that discontent is high in the US. It is also critical that we prepare, on a personal level, for the possibilities. Sticking our head in the sand will not make the issues disappear. That is what Survivaleer is all about–planning and preparing for the possibilities so that if they come our way, we are ready to survive.